A change from
stable population with high fertility and mortality to a new stability in
population due to low fertility and mortality patterns is referred to as a
demographic transition. At the earliest stage, there are high fertility and mortality
rates and almost no natural increase in the population growth. During the
second phase of the transition, mortality rates begin to fall, particularly for
infants and children. This decline often takes place due to enhancement in
sanitation, drinking water and preventive and curative health care. The
resulting decline in the infant mortality rate (IMR) and in child mortality
sparks a baby boom because now babies survive who in the past might have died.
During the post -transition or final stage, there is low fertility and
mortality, and low rates of natural increase. The pace of India's population has
slowed in the past few decades; and in the coming years, India will have a
large proportion of people belonging to the working class. Optimists have argued
that the resulting demographic dividend (or bonus) will create a smaller dependency
load and will generate opportunities for economic growth. On the other hand,
the pessimists have stated that India is indeed heading towards a demographic
dividend, but challenges exist for economic prosperity if India's policies are
not geared towards productive employment for this large working age group.
Page_no_87/kkhsou/social_demography/mso_15
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